"Taking it one day at a time because there is nothing better to do than living in the present."

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Equilibrium

Today I read a little about the G-8 summit and came up with a hypothesis for the future of United State's economy. So the G-8 consists of:

Canada,
France,
Germany,
Italy,
Japan,
Russia,
United Kingdom,
United States,

All members were concerned about further deterioration in the global economy. Furthermore the IMF recently predicted a darker outlook on the world economy than previous estimates. Yet one can also read that all these countries are concerned about the emerging market. Why?

Emerging markets such as China, India, and Brazil are becoming bigger players in how the global economy operates. This was not the case when the G8 group was formed. This leads me to believe that the G8 is losing their grip on global wealth to the emerging market. To look good G8 discloses its willingness to work with the emerging markets to subdue a downward global economy, but in reality they are asking for help because they are drowning in debt. Also they are asking China and India to slowdown on industrialization for the sake of environmental welfare. Yeah right, like America would slowdown during their industrialization. Climate is only an excuse for trying to stop what can not be stopped.

In short America and the rest of G8 will soon have to acknowledge China, India and other emerging markets as full members of the so call "G8." (Not some lame term such as "Outreach O5.") Of course there is the G20 but when the day G8 is dismantled that is the day when its existing members have to accept the economy is truly globalized and all should have an equal say as in how the global economy should operate. Therefore America can no longer have the most and spend the most because the share of wealth is expanding from a domestic population to a global population. That does not mean America can not be prosperous, or does it? Too many variables to consider and it is driving me crazy.

P.S.- My first comment from Chris is about the VXV chart from TOS being incorrect. I acknowledge that VXV does not work on TOS but if you put in VXV.X it is the 3 month CBOE volatility. Just to verify like you asked I went to CBOE's website and downloaded the .csv file on closing prices on the VXV and today 07-07-09 it closed at 32.09 identical to the value read off of TOS. Thanks for the comment though, greatly appericate it.

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